Three Problems For Duke by Kyle Butler

“Live by the three, die by the three.”

I’m not sure anyone knows who first uttered these words, but they seem to come into play every year around this time. A team that blows its way through the regular season by shooting lights-out from the perimeter inevitably encounters important games down the stretch when the shots just won’t fall. Unfortunately for the Duke Blue Devils, they provide 2008’s best example of how any team can lose a basketball game if they rely too much on the outside shot. But the number three in this story does not solely refer to Duke’s inability to hit the outside shot. Rather, the outside shot is one of three reasons why Duke failed to advance.

1) Shooting: The only reason that Duke got to a #2 seed in the first place was through great outside shooting. DeMarcus  Nelson, Greg Paulus, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singler proved to be more than capable from beyond the arc. But somewhere in February, the Blue Devils lost their touch from outside. 8-28 against Wake Forest. 2-15 vs. Georgia Tech. 6-26 in the loss to Clemson in the ACC Tournament. And finally, an abysmal 11-43 performance in the two NCAA games, capped off with a stretch in which Duke missed 15 threes in a row in a 6-pt loss to West Virginia.

2) No Inside Game: You can survive poor shooting nights by making sure you get the ball to your inside presence. Sounds simple enough, so what was the problem for the Blue Devils? They didn’t have one! Lance Thomas is a fair offensive rebounder, but can’t score. Singler can drive to the basket and hold his own in the paint, but still settles for the outside shot most of the time. And I don’t like to be harsh, but Brian Zoubek is just about useless. He reminds me of a less talented (if that’s possible) Serge Zwikker. This is good news for Zwikker, since the former Tarheel now has company in the “Worst Center in ACC History Whose Name Starts With The Letter Z” club. Duke has had some strong big men in the past. Carlos Boozer and Shelden Williams immediately spring to mind. Coach K will need to find one on the recruiting trail, because the inside void can’t be filled by anyone currently on Duke’s roster.

3) Stamina: Duke’s season came to an end early for the 2nd straight season in eerily similar fashion. I don’t know if it’s bad conditioning, or strenuous classes, or having to negotiate through all those goofy tents around Krzyzewskiville, but in any event, Duke appears exhausted. They wore down late in the regular season finale against UNC, couldn’t hold Clemson in the ACC Semifinals, and looked extremely tired while blowing a significant second-half lead to West Virginia. Coach K looked tired too, but he had the flu. The players can’t use that excuse. Again, I’m not sure what the culprit is, but it’s been a common theme the last few years. The Blue Devils wear down, can’t hit their outside shots, and have no inside game to make up for it. It should be an interesting offseason for Coach K. He’s going to need to find time outside of coaching the US Olympic team to find answers to these three issues. If he can’t, next year Duke will be afflicted with another three- the number of consecutive years the Devils get bounced on the NCAA’s opening weekend.

Analyzing the Brackets: The West Region by Kyle Butler

Three regions down, just one left. Time to Go West, young man.

FIRST ROUND

UCLA v. Mississippi Valley St.
-MVSU has the best nickname in the field, the Delta Devils. That’s about all they’ve got going for them here. UCLA in a rout.

BYU v. Texas A&M
-Gonna be honest here, I have no clue. I’m still mad at A&M for ruining my bracket last year when they lost to Memphis, so out of spite, I’m going with BYU.

Drake v. W. Kentucky
-If you ask me, Drake Coach Keno Davis should be Coach of the Year. I saw them play against Butler, and these guys are pretty solid. I think they’ll be able to survive an upset bid by WKU.

UConn v. San Diego
-A lot of people are really high on UConn, but I’m not one of them. Jim Calhoun seems to get pretty frustrated with this team a lot. San Diego won a strong WCC tournament, and I think they might be able to upset the Huskies.

Purdue v. Baylor
-Baylor making the field is a great story after the program’s downfall from a few years back. Unfortunately, the Bears have only won 4 of their last 10. Not too good. Purdue advances.

Xavier v. Georgia
-My biggest upset is here. Georgia stunned the bball world by winning the SEC Tournament. Xavier hasn’t played all that great lately, and they are coached by Sean “Jughead” Miller. UGA keeps their hot streak going, for one round anyway.

W. Virginia v. Arizona
-Can anyone tell me why Arizona is in the field? Anyone? 14 losses is a bunch. Get ready to add a 15th, because WVU’s Joe Alexander is on fire right now. Mountaineers win.

Duke v. Belmont
-Duke is the weakest of the 2 seeds, but Belmont shouldn’t give Coach K’s boys much trouble. Will be interesting to see if Gerald Henderson’s wrist is 100 percent.

SECOND ROUND

UCLA v. BYU
-I really can’t see BYU being able to slow down Kevin Love and the Bruins in this one. Stick with UCLA.

Drake v. San Diego
-A win in this game, and Drake will have 30 wins on the season. I’ll go ahead and check that off my list of things I never thought I’d see, because I’m going with the Bulldogs.

Purdue v. Georgia
-A great run for UGA has to end at some point, right? I think it ends at the hands of the Boilermakers.

Duke v. W. Virginia
-A lot of people like the Mountaineers in this one, and I think Duke could encounter some problems here. But Bob Huggins has never been a strong postseason coach, and I think Duke, in a close battle, survives WVU.

SWEET 16

UCLA v. Drake
-UCLA is like UNC in this respect. They don’t have to travel too far from home in their region. They should have a large contingent of fans here, and Drake won’t be able to overcome it. Bruins advance.

Duke v. Purdue
-You know, Duke is really struggling, but they also have one of the easiest roads of any 2 seed in the tournament. So while I’m not sold on the Blue Devils, I still think they’ll get past Purdue.

WEST FINAL
UCLA v. Duke
-A lot of history and tradition in this matchup. This battle of powerhouses should make CBS execs drool. I don’t know that the game will live up to the names involved though. Duke has nobody to match up with Kevin Love inside, and UCLA has the guard play to handle Duke’s outside game. I’ll be honest, I don’t think UCLA is all that great, but I see them rolling past Duke in this one, and on to the Final Four.

So that wraps it up. Only 63 games to go. It’s the NCAA Tournament…let the Madness begin!

Analyzing the Brackets: The South Region by Kyle Butler

Done with the East….Finished the Midwest. Now it’s time to head South. Here we go…

FIRST ROUND

Memphis v. UT-Arlington
-Congrats to Arlington for making it here. That said, they have as much chance of winning as Ralph Nader. Tigers in a rout.

Mississippi St v. Oregon
-I’m not sure why Oregon was so bad after returning 4 starters from a team that went to the Elite 8 last year. Miss St has Ben Hansbrough, Tyler’s brother. If they had Tyler, I’d go with MSU, but in a tough call, I’ll take the Ducks.

Michigan St v. Temple
-Seems like every year a 12 seed beats a 5. Michigan St is wildly inconsistent and can go from scoring 100 in one game to 40 in the next. Temple has a great playmaker in Dionte Christmas. I say Christmas comes in March this year. Owls win.

Pittsburgh v. Oral Roberts
-Pitt is finally healthy and hit their stride in the Big East Tourney. They shouldn’t have any trouble with ORU.

Marquette v. Kentucky
-Hard to believe UK got to the big dance. Nice job by Billy Gillespie to get what he could out of this squad. But I think it’s one and done for Big Blue. Marquette’s the pick.

Stanford v. Cornell
-Personally I would love to see UK play Cornell, so we could have Big Blue and Big Red. Neither will happen. Stanford advances.

Miami v. St Mary’s
-Frank Haith did a great job with the U. They have one shooter, Jack McClinton. St Mary’s has 3 shooters. Power in numbers. Go with the Gaels.

Texas v. Austin Peay
-Austin Peay comes from Clarksville, which reminds me of that Monkees song. They’ll be able to take the last train back to Clarksville after Texas is through with them.

SECOND ROUND

Memphis v. Oregon
-The Ducks are probably capable of upsetting Memphis, but they’ve had a hard time putting 2 games together all year. Based on that, Calipari’s Tigers should advance to the round of 16.

Pittsburgh v. Temple
-Good grief, did we really have to go all the way to Denver to watch this battle of Pennsylvania teams? Geez. Pittsburgh continues their hot streak and wins this one.

Stanford v. Marquette
-I could see this one going either way, but the game being in Anaheim, I expect Stanford will have a pretty good cheering section there. I’ll take the Cardinal in a squeaker.

Texas v. St Mary’s
-What kind of bracket doesn’t have a stunner…a team no one expects to last past the first weekend. Not mine. My stunner: St Mary’s. Everyone has Texas advancing…I’m going with the upset. St Mary’s is this year’s Cinderella.

SWEET 16

Memphis v. Pittsburgh
-Memphis has played one great team since the end of December. It was Tennessee, and they lost. Now they’ll face another great team in Pitt. Guess what? I think they’ll lose again. Jamie Dixon’s Panthers get it done.

Stanford v. St Mary’s
-I normally don’t hold much regard for Stanford, but only bad officiating prevented Cardinal from winning the Pac-10. I think those guys are motivated, and have them eliminating the Gaels.

SOUTH FINAL

Stanford v. Pittsburgh
-This is definitely the region where my bracket deviates from most of the public. Yep, a 3 and a 4 facing off in Houston. It’s quite possible that Pitt won’t be here, having exerted a ton of energy winning the Big East Tournament. But I saw this team at full strength early in the year when they knocked off Duke. They’re basically at that level again. The Panthers are a really good basketball team, and I think they’ll take out Stanford en route to the Final Four.

Who will the Panthers be facing in San Antonio? The West breakdown is tomorrow.

Analyzing the Brackets: The Midwest Region by Kyle Butler

Alright, we’re done with the East. Let’s see how things should shape up in the Midwest.

FIRST ROUND

Kansas v. Portland St.
-Congrats to Portland St on their first trip to the big dance. Don’t pack for more than one night. Jayhawks win easily.

UNLV v. Kent St.
-Kent is a trendy pick but UNLV made a great run last year. I expect the Runnin Rebels to win at least once this year.

Clemson v. Villanova
-I really love this Clemson team. They are extremely capable both inside and beyond the arc. I don’t even think Nova should be in the tournament, but it’s ok, they won’t stick around long. Take the Tigers.

Vanderbilt v. Siena
-Siena is led by former UNCG coach Fran McCaffrey…one of the best coaches you’ve never heard of. His club could really scare Vandy, but the Commodores will advance.

USC v. Kansas State
-While my gut tells me USC will win, I always think the best player in the tournament can lead his team to at least one win. Michael Beasley is the best player here, and K-State will win one game.

Wisconsin v. Cal State Fullerton
-CSF is in the tourney for the first time since the Carter administration. There’s the potential they could beat the Badgers, but I’m not confident enough to call the upset here.

Gonzaga v. Davidson
-Anyone who has seen Davidson play knows they’re for real. Stephen Curry is outstanding, and the Wildcats get to play in nearby Raleigh. Gonzaga has to travel from Spokane…yikes! Sorry Zags. Davidson’s the pick here.

Georgetown v. UMBC
-I’m gonna go out on a limb here and guess that UMBC has nobody who can size up with 7′3 Roy Hibbert in the middle. Hoyas roll.

SECOND ROUND

Kansas v. UNLV
-Might be a better game than some people expect. In the end though, too much Rock Chalk Jayhawk. KU wins.

Vanderbilt v. Clemson
-Excellent 2nd round game here, as either of these teams is a potential sleeper in this region. The Tigers are playing with a great deal of confidence, and I think they’ll keep the run going here.

Wisconsin v. Kansas St.
-It’s quite possible that Beasley will put up 30 against Wisconsin. However, it’s also quite possible that the rest of the team might only put up 7 against the tenacious Badger defense. On Wisconsin! To the Sweet 16.

Georgetown v. Davidson
-This one could go down to the wire…that’s how good Davidson is. But in the end, G’Town will be too much for the Wildcats.

SWEET 16

Kansas v. Clemson
-The Jayhawks are a trendy pick to go all the way, 20 years after their last title. But recent trends have shown Kansas to botch up the tournament. They can’t afford to mess around against Clemson. Call me crazy, but I think Bill Self’s struggles will continue, and the Tigers advance.

Georgetown v. Wisconsin
-The question here is whether either team will put up more than 50 points. If you like offense, this game will be as pleasant to you as a root canal. Georgetown is the pick in an ugly battle.

MIDWEST FINAL

Georgetown v. Clemson
-An intriguing matchup because of the contrasting styles. Georgetown plays strong and solid, Clemson plays with speed and style. One thing the Hoyas have, however, is the experience of being this far before. The Hoyas hold the Tigers down, neutralize their speed, and advance to the Final Four for a 2nd straight season.

Next time, we march through the South. Keep an eye out.

Analyzing the Brackets: The East Region by Kyle Butler

Well my picks for the ACC Tournament weren’t quite as bad as they have been in the past. At least this time I got the tournament winner right. It wasn’t an easy road for North Carolina, but the Tarheels persevered and captured an unprecedented 17th ACC Tournament Title. A big congratulations goes out to Coach Roy Williams and the rest of the UNC team on a great tournament showing.

 Obviously, the Heels aren’t done by a long shot. UNC received a #1 overall seed in the Eastern region, a region that will keep the team close to home on the road to the Final Four. Will playing in Raleigh and Charlotte propel the Heels to San Antonio? It’s time to break down the East.

FIRST ROUND:

UNC v. MSM/Coppin St.
-No 16 seed has ever beaten a 1. It won’t happen here. Heels roll.

Indiana v. Arkansas
-Those 8/9 games are always tough. Indiana is struggling, but Hoosiers have enough talent to win at least one game.

Notre Dame v. George Mason
-Remember Mason? The Patriots are hoping for another Cinderella run. Not this time. I’m taking the Irish.

Washington St v. Winthrop
-Winthrop is certainly capable of pulling the upset, but I think Washington St holds on in a good first round game.

Oklahoma v. St Josephs
-Extremely tough call. OU played well down the stretch while St Joe’s was really inconsistent. Not a bad idea for those of you who like upsets, but I’m sticking with the Sooners.

Louisville v. Boise St
-I’m taking Rick Pitino’s Cardinals, but wouldn’t you love to see Boise advance to face Oklahoma. Hmm, I wonder how many times they’d show that Fiesta Bowl replay in that broadcast?

Butler v. S. Alabama
-Butler went 29-3. They went undefeated against the 6 power conferences. They finished the regular season in the top 10. And the best seed they can get is a 7?! Hello?! Come on people. Butler advances.

Tennessee v. American
-Congratulations to former UVA Coach Jeff Jones, as he led American to their first tournament berth. It’ll be a short stay though. UT rolls.

SECOND ROUND

UNC v. Indiana
-This is potentially a scary game for the Tarheels, but Indiana has been so inconsistent since Kelvin Sampson’s resignation. I’d expect a close game for a half or so, but UNC should pull away and advance to the Sweet 16.

Wash St v. Notre Dame
-Notre Dame has a tremendous player in Luke Harangody. The Big East POY is good for 20 and 10 a night. Maybe St Patrick’s Day is clouding my judgment, but I like the Irish over Washington St.

Louisville v. Oklahoma
-Lots of people are in love with Louisville. I’m not one of them, but do like them just enough to take out Oklahoma in a low scoring game.

Tennessee v. Butler
-This result depends on which Vols team shows up. The regular season Vols, who were arguably the best team in the country. Or the SEC Tournament Vols, who forgot the concept of defense. This may be the best potential 2nd round game, and in a close one, I have to stick with Tennessee.

SWEET 16

UNC v. Notre Dame
-This is an intriguing matchup with Harangody meeting Tyler Hansbrough. Those two might cancel each other out. And the Irish have shooters to keep up with Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. So again, another tough game for UNC, but I like the Heels to pull it out in Charlotte.

Tennessee v. Louisville
-If the Vols get past Butler, then the Vols are back to playing great basketball. That’s enough to lift them into the Elite 8. Bruce Pearl…please keep your shirt on.

EAST FINAL

UNC v. Tennessee 
-I can’t imagine what the atmosphere will be like in Charlotte for this one. I do know that it could be the best game of the tournament. Both teams are capable of running the floor and having defensive lapses. What does that mean? A ton of points! A close game usually comes down to free throws. If it does, UNC has 4 guys who shoot 80%. Tennessee has 1. North Carolina makes just enough from the charity stripe to take out the Vols and punch their ticket to San Antonio.

Next up, the Midwest. Keep an eye out.

ACC Tourney Projections by Kyle Butler

This is the time of year when two major events occur. The first involves a ridiculous number of college basketball games that result in a large contingent of the population coming down with a severe case of March Madness. The second is yours truly attempting to predict the outcomes of each of these basketball games. This results in a lot of people making fun of my apparent lack of prognosticating skills. Whatever. I’m going to try again this year. So without further ado, here’s what will go down at the ACC Tournament in the Queen City of Charlotte this weekend.

FIRST ROUND
#8 Wake Forest vs. #9 FSU
Wake swept FSU in the regular season. FSU has played better recently though. The Deacs hit their high mark when they beat Duke. Since then, they’re 1-4. Seminoles in a nail-biter.

#5 Miami vs. #12 NC State
The Wolfpack beat the “U” earlier this year in a wild ending capped by Gavin Grant’s steal and layup. At the time it looked like it would save State’s season. That was before State tanked and lost their last 8, 6 by double digits. Miami is probably already in the field of 64, but one more win wouldn’t hurt. They’ll get it against State.

#7 GA Tech vs. #10 UVA
Hard to believe Tech got a 7 seed with an overall record of 14-16, but that’s what happened. UVA stunk it up for most of the year, but did win 4 of their last 6. I’m expecting a big night from Sean Singletary, which should be just enough to lift the Wahoos past the Ramblin Wreck.

#6 Maryland vs. #11 BC
The Terps were pathetic over the last 3 weeks and probably burst their NCAA bubble. They also seem ripe for an upset here. Except that BC has lost 12 of 13. The one win in that stretch? Against NC State, of course. Big deal. Maryland advances here.

QUARTERFINALS
#1 UNC vs. #9 FSU
FSU played the Tarheels pretty well this year, and I would expect them to contend for one half. In the end, UNC has too much depth, too many weapons, and that Hansbrough fellow, who’s pretty good if you haven’t noticed. UNC takes this one by 15 or so.

#4 VA Tech vs. #5 Miami
Really tough call here. Tech is another of those bubble teams and needs a win here. But I don’t know that the Hokies have enough size inside or the ability to slow down Jack McClinton from the outside. Should be a good one but I’m going with Miami.

#2 Duke vs. #10 UVA
Duke had an easy time with the Cavs this year, winning by 16 and 22 points. Singletary needs about 40 in this one for UVA to have a shot. He’ll do his best, but Duke should win without much trouble.

#3 Clemson vs. #6 Maryland
The Terps get another shot at the Tigers, 12 days after the mammoth 2^nd half collapse in College Park. It’s a must win for Maryland, but I really like this Clemson team. Free throw shooting could be a problem but I’m going with the Tigers.

SEMIFINALS
#1 UNC vs. #5 Miami
This could potentially be one of the most entertaining games if Miami has any legs left. UNC got 27 pts from Tyler Hansbrough in the 2^nd half of the teams lone meeting this year. While that probably won’t happen this time, he’ll still get his points, along with Ellington, Lawson and company. UNC advances to the title game.

#2 Duke vs. #3 Clemson
It’s likely that Duke will get killed on the boards in this game, so everything depends on how well the Blue Devils shoot from the floor. They shot 53% against Clemson earlier this year. Anything near that, and the Blue Devils survive. I say Duke makes just enough free throws down the stretch to eliminate the Tigers.

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP
#1 UNC vs. #2 Duke
Does anyone see a different matchup for the final? Anyone? I’ve tried, but these two were clearly the class of the ACC. And in all honesty, I think the ACC final will go much the same as the game in Cameron last week. A late run should be enough to lift the Heels to the ACC title and a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

ACC Tournament Week. Doesn’t get much better than this. Enjoy it.

The Madness Approaches by Kyle Butler

March has arrived, and you know what that means. It’s almost tourney time! With so much still undecided, let’s take a look and see how each ACC team stands as they prepare for the Madness to begin.

1- North Carolina (13-2) (28-2) UNC has recovered nicely from the Lawson injury and may be a better team now than they were before their PG got hurt. A win over Duke this weekend would put the Heels in the drivers seat for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Tyler Hansbrough gets my vote for National Player of the Year as well.

2- Duke (12-2) (25-3) Unlike UNC, Duke has been floundering of late. Back to back losses against Wake and Miami means the Blue Devils now must beat UNC at home to win the regular season crown. A win Saturday probably clinches a #1 for Coach K’s boys. That is, if they can beat UVA tonight. Considering Duke’s recent struggles against Georgia Tech and NC State, a win over the Wahoos might not be automatic.

3- Clemson (9-5) (21-7) The Tigers are a lock for the big dance, and will be in the field for the first time this decade. Coach Oliver Purnell has done a fantastic job. It would have been easy for the Tigers to collapse down the stretch after the way they lost to the Tarheels in Chapel Hill, but the Tigers have won 4 of 5 since then. A win over Virginia Tech and Clemson is the 3^rd seed in Charlotte.

4- Virginia Tech (9-6) (18-11) And now we reach the first bubble team. So much depends on the Hokies beating Clemson. It gives them 10 conference wins. Hard to imagine any team with 10 wins in the ACC could have its bubble burst on Selection Sunday. But those early losses to ODU, Richmond, and Penn State don’t look so good. Bottom line: Beat Clemson, VA Tech is in. A loss, and they might need 2 wins in Charlotte.

5- Maryland (8-7) (18-12) Who is the real Maryland? The team that won 6 of 7 last month, including a win over top ranked UNC? Or the team that lost 4 of its last 6, including a mammoth collapse against Clemson? The Terps have to beat UVA and win a game in Charlotte to get in. There just aren’t enough quality wins otherwise.

6- Miami (7-7) (20-8) The Canes are sort of like Maryland, except unlike the Terps, Miami is playing their best basketball of the season right now. The win over Duke is still fresh in people’s minds, so wins in their last 2 conference games make it nearly impossible for Miami to be left out. Frank Haith has done a great job at the U.

7-12- Wake, FSU, Georgia Tech, Virginia, BC, NC State. These teams have to win the ACC Tournament to get in. Good luck with that, boys.

I’ll say it again. March has arrived. What a month!

A Special Night For A Special Player by Kyle Butler

Basketball players having their numbers retired is nothing new. Basketball players having their numbers retired while still active? That’s something you just don’t see. Unless you were one of the lucky folks who packed Fleming Gym on the campus of UNCG Thursday night, as the school honored Kyle Hines by retiring his #42 in an emotional ceremony. Hines, who for 4 years has dominated the interior in the Southern Conference, didn’t disappoint the home crowd, pouring in 26 points to lead the Spartans to a an 87-64 win. But the real story came before the opening tip. Hines was surrounded by his family, coaches, teammates, and a sea of yellow. UNCG distributed over 1000 yellow t-shirts emblazoned with the #42 and Hines’ name on the back to help celebrate his accomplishments over his UNCG career. And oh, what accomplishments. Consider the following:

Hines will leave UNCG as the school’s all time leading scorer, rebounder, and shot blocker. He was the conference rookie of the year in 2005, the player of the year in 2007, and were it not for Stephen Curry down in Davidson, Hines would certainly be the player of the year for 08. He joined select company this year by becoming only the 6th player in NCAA history with over 200o points, 1000 rebounds, and 300 blocked shots. The most impressive statistic? His consistency. Hines has scored in double figures for an astounding 78 straight games, showing that night in and night out, UNCG can depend on #42 to put up the points.

He’s already slated to attend the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, which showcases top college seniors for both NBA and International scouts. UNCG has never had a player in the NBA, but there’s a good chance that will change next season. Though undersized, Hines has Tyler Hansbrough-like work ethic, a tremendous wingspan, and great strength around the goal. And for doubters who argue that the Southern Conference isn’t exactly full of grade A talent, Hines has proven he can put up numbers against ACC teams as well. Ask Georgia Tech. He scored 25 against them. Or Duke. Two years ago Hines poured in 20 points while being guarded by future NBA baller Shelden Williams.

As great as he is on the court, he’s an even better person off the court. After Thursday’s game, as usual, Hines stressed how winning the game was more important than any individual achievement on his part. But for one night, I beg to differ. This night was about Kyle Hines. I can’t think of a more deserving honoree.